Monday, January 24, 2011

Preview Properties - Walk For Warmth

Preview Properties has a Community Service Committee that meets to choose various charities for whom we raise money. Every month is a new community group.  Fundraisers vary, but the most popular is either a breakfast or lunch, pot luck style, where agents and staff bring in a dish, then pay to eat!

Tomorrow, Tuesday, January 25th, the beneficiary is the Oakland Livingston Human Services Agency's (OLHSA) 'Walk For Warmth' campaign. And the food theme is 'Chili Cookoff'.  This is a favorite of mine. Not to brag (too much), but I won the last chili cookoff. 1st out of 9 entries was pretty good for me.  Plus I got to rub it in to an agent buddy that is pretty darned proud of his chili. It's all in good humor and of course, the money raised goes to a great cause.

I'll be making my special 'Sweetwater Chili' recipe today because it is slow cooked for a long time and is even better the next day. No matter how I fare this year, Walk for Warmth will certainly win.

And speaking of that program, Erica Karfonta, Director of OLHSA, will be the guest speaker at this Thursday's Brighton Optimist Club Meeting. Erica is coming to talk to us about that program specifically.  The Optimists do wonderful things for the youth in the County, but they also support a lot of other community service and charitable organizations, too. 

If you're interested, feel free to pop in to the Bauery Restaurant at Mt. Brighton at 7:30 am this Thursday, January 27th. First time visitors get their breakfasts free. The Brighton Optimists have an ambitious roster of activities to complete this year and are always looking for like minded residents to join in and help.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers?

An article on the Yahoo Finance page, attributed to 24/7 Wall St., has identified 8 states where buyers may have gone on "strike", and coupled with the high foreclosure rate, has caused home prices to plummet.


Using previously released studies and data from sources such as RealtyTrac and the S & P Case-Schiller Index, the authors reiterate claims that home prices will drop another 7%-10% this year and that it may take another four to five years for the housing market to recover.

The eight states listed, in reverse order are:

8. Florida - with a vacancy rate of over 21% and the 3rd worst 2010 Foreclosure Rate

7. Oregon - 10.6% unemployment and more than a 74% reduction in building permits from 2006 - 2010.

6. Georgia - 6th worst state in 2010 for foreclosures and a 10% unemployment

5. Illinois - 1.23% population growth, 5th worst for decrease in building permits

4. California - 4th worst foreclosure rate and tied for 2nd worst unemployment rate

3. Arizona - 2nd worst state for foreclosures and 5th worst for vacancy rate (17+%)

2. Nevada - worst in the nation for foreclosure rate, unemployment and decrease in building permits

And the worst state according to this article? Michigan - my state.

A 15+% vacancy rate, 12.4% unemployment rate and the biggest population 'loser' from 2005-2010 at -2.05%, we know how the travails of the automotive sector have impacted all of us. Many are optimistic that new leadership in Detroit, by Mayor Dave Bing, and our new Governor, Rick Snyder, will start to propel us out of this mess and make some progress.

Of course, the controversial auto bailouts of GM and Chrysler didn't hurt and for now those companies appear to be gaining strength. Ford Motor Company remained in a stronger position and if anything has made even more progress in the last two years. I doubt that we'll ever revisit the years of massive manufacturing production that once were, but Detroit and Michigan are trying to reinvent themselves.

The article suggests that there are buyers waiting for even lower prices and that we may never again see the home prices of 2006, even after recovery. In areas with very high unemployment rates, the inventory of available homes may be too large to be supported. I don't necessarily agree with the 'buyer strike' terminology, although I have heard some potential buyers say they were going to save more money and wait for prices to drop even more before purchasing. It does not bode well for sellers that do not have a good amount of equity in their homes, that's for sure.

A fascinating snapshot, complete with data sources, and an easy read.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Is The Real Estate Market Rebounding?

We measure inventory in terms of "months of supply". Example: If there are 100 units available and an average of 10 units are sold each month (for the last year), that's 100/10=10 month supply. For those of us in the industry, a 6 month supply of homes (or condos) is considered a balanced market. Less than a 6 month supply is a seller's market, longer than 6 months is a buyer's market. Of course, that's a very general guideline, but it works most of the time.

Here's some information that was discussed at my company's sales meeting yesterday. From calendar year 2009 to calendar year 2010, the inventory of detached single family residences (SFR) in Livingston County (MI) dropped by 17.5%, from 8.0 to 6.6 months of supply. Likewise, the condo supply dropped from 7.9 to 5.8, or by 26.5%.

In Oakland County, the SFR went from 7.0 to 5.8, or a 17.1% drop while condos went from a 9.4 month supply to 5.6 months - a whopping 40.4% drop in inventory!

Washtenaw also saw drops, although more modest. For SFRs it was from 7.4 in 2009 to 6.9 in 2010, a 6.6% reduction. Condos went from 9.1 to 6.1 months supply, or a 24.2% reduction.
Now we know that 2010 was still a big year for foreclosures and that not as many foreclosures came on the market for resale. Banks seem to be hanging on to some of the inventory, keeping them off the market. But I don't think that accounts for all of these figures.

We have historically low interest rates (although they are creeping back up), low purchase prices, lower inventory, and judging by our collective calls and inquiries there is strong buyer demand.

My personal experience is that when a property gets to the 'right' price it will create a multiple offer situation. I've recently been in situations where one of my listings had 6 competing offers, another 4. As a buyer's agent, I've been there, too. My feeling is that the housing market is starting to rebound, although we're certainly not in the clear yet. 'Rebound' is in terms of the number of sales, not sales prices, which remain pretty low. What do you think about the real estate market or the economy in general?

Monday, January 17, 2011

Camel Race - February 5,2011

They're at it again! The Brighton Optimist Club is sponsoring its 3rd Camel Race at Crystal Gardens Banquet Center in Howell, on February 5th, 2011. A different kind of Millionaire Party licensed under the Charitable Gaming Division of the State of Michigan (License #M55856), this event will keep you talking for weeks.


Camels that have been adopted by businesses and decorated uniquely, race 6 at a time in 8 different heats. Wagering is pari-mutuel syle, and there are door prizes, 50/50 raffles and giveaways between the race heats. There is also voting for the best decorated camel. $30 admission gets you dinner, drink tickets for either draft beer or house wine, and an evening of fun. Doors open at 6pm and festivities conclude at 11pm. Proceeds are used to support the Brighton Optimist Club's youth and community service activities.

Doors open at 6pm and festivities conclude around 11pm. Tickets can be purchased online via a secure system at the event web site, http://www.bigcamelrace.com/. For more info, email info@BigCamelRace.com.

Friday, January 07, 2011

Great Fun & Community Support!

The Brighton Optimist Club has awarded tens of thousands of dollars in its 33 year history. They do great things for the community and especially for its youth.  This event is a major fundraiser that helps them continue their grat work.

The Brighton Optimist Club is presenting their 3rd Camel Race on February 5, 2011 at Crystal Gardens, in Howell, MI.  Doors open at 6pm, dinner at 6:30pm, and festivities immediately after dinner.

What kind of festivities? Well, as part of your $30 admission, you get the dinner and drink tickets for both draft beer and house wines. Cash bar is available for other drinks.  There will be 50/50 raffles, door prizes and betting on the camels.  There will be opportunities for losing bettors to win 'consolation prizes' between the race heats, too. Early bird? Not worry, this even is usually over around 11pm.

You will get caught up in the betting and racing action. Tickets can be purchased online at the Camel Race web site, or the Brighton Optimist web site, or feel free to drop me an email.

License #M55856 issued through the State of Michigan Charitable Gaming Division. Proceeds go to the general fund of the Optimist Foundation of Livingston County, a 501 c3 organization.