2019 Real Estate Forecast

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Depending on what you read (or news you watch), you would get slightly different opinions on how real estate will perform in 2019.  Here's a summary of housing industry sources for you: 

• National Association of Realtors (NAR) - Home sales will be flat; 3% appreciation rate; inventory will stay tight.
• Realtor.com - Likely will stay a seller's market for a couple of years as inventory slowly builds; interest rates likely to climb to 5.5% by year's end; about a 2% decline in overall number of homes sold compared to 2018
• Redfin - Home prices will be flat to 3% appreciation; Interest rates to 5.5% by year's end; more renters will find a way to buy.
• Zillow - Home values up 3%-4%; Interest rates to 5.8% by year's end; rising home costs and mortgage interest rates will encourage people to stay put.
• National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - Builder confidence at 3 year low due to increased costs from labor, lots, laws, lending and lumber.  Prediction is flat to 2% growth in number of new home sales.
• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) - Housing demand will remain strong; mortage rates will hang in the mid-5% range; home prices likely to 'moderate'.
• Forbes - Mortgage interest rates continue to rise into the mid 5% area; millenials will continue to enter into home ownership; overall home sales to drop 2%; inventory will increase.

These are predictions nationwide.  Local markets vary.  It is still a good seller's market in Livingston County until you get to the homes priced at $400,000 or higher. Other nearby areas may vary somewhat.  Call me at 810-220-1478 if you want info on West Oakland or North Washtenaw.

Edit:  Coincidentally, an article ran in today's (Jan 24, 2019) Detroit Free Press under Steve Pepple's byline on page 5A.  The Metro Detroit summary is that the number of 2018 home sales were down, but prices were up.  For Livingston County, the median sales price was up 6.3% to $270,000 and the number of sales (2,721) were down 8%. I'll be analyzing the full 2018 data in the next couple of weeks.