Howell Condo Market – Buyers Market!

Whether you’re a Real Estate Professional or an interested consumer, you’ve likely noted that the condo market is glutted and has more potential deals than the larger total housing market.

Looking at condominiums that are located in the two Howell, MI zip codes (48843 and 48855) we can see how badly condos are faring in the current economy.

In calendar year 2007, there were 55 condominium sales recorded in the RealComp MLS. They showed an average sales price of $127,756, a median sales price of $120,000, and a total sales volume (total sales dollars for all 55 sales) of $7,026,554.

In 2008 (through 12/14/08), there were 48 sales with an average sales price of $85,543, a median sales price of $82,950 and a total sales volume of $4,106,053.

These are tremendous one-year drops in value by any standard. The average sales price is down 33%, the median is down almost 31% and the sales volume has dropped over 41%! To make it worse, with 214 units available in these areas right now, there is over a 53 month supply of condominiums (214 available divided by 48 sales this year for 12 months, or an average of 4 sales/mo).

Foreclosed unit sales in this area have tripled, from 6 in 2007 to 18 in 2008.

New construction has essentially stopped, and some builders/developers have either lost unsold units to foreclosure, gone bankrupt, or both. Homeowners in some condo associations are having a myriad of issues to handle, too.

If the development has not had enough units sold to invest the residents as Association Board members, the developer retains control. Some Associations are finding that while they’ve paid their monthly dues, services are not being performed (snow plowing, landscaping) because there’s not enough money in the fund.

Developers often base the starting dues on a certain number of sales per year and a maximum build out time. They may even stipend some of the early costs to get new sales in their communities. When the sales stop and there are many units left to build, it’s bad for everyone.

Built-out, established communities are also grappling with the loss of monthly dues due to bank-owned properties. When a condo goes into foreclosure, those dues stop (often dues are one of the first payment to be deferred when owners get into financial trouble, even before foreclosure). If your association is working on a tight budget and the number of foreclosed properties keeps climbing, it can really hurt the whole community. Banks do pay these back dues at closing, but it certainly creates a short-term budget crunch for the association.

There are definite deals out there in the condo market, but remember to do your homework before you commit yourself. If you’re considering a unit in a development that has a lot of empty sites, be extra careful. Once you analyze the Association budget, it may still be worth pursuing, but make sure you’ve got as much information as possible on which to base your decision.

December 2007 and Year-End Market Report

(c) 2008, Robert Smith
Analyzing data released by the RealComp multi-list system to its members, it appears that Livingston County finished 2007 with an small upswing.

While homes (single-family houses and condominiums) on the market were down by almost 7% from the same period in 2006 (419 homes vs. 450), total listings on the market, which includes vacant land, multi-family and commercial listings, were dead even (4698 for 2007 vs. 4695 in 2006).

In December, there was a slight rebound in both the average and median sale prices. While these are only good as a larger view, it's encouraging to see increases at the end of the year in these indicators. Comparing 2007 to 2006, the median price showed an overall drop of 8.6% from $215,667 in 2006 to $197,195 in 2007.

Houses fell from $218,900 median sale price in 2006 to $190,000 in 2007, and condominiums took a much larger hit, going from $155,000 in 2006 to $104,000 in 2007. Vacant land prices also fell dramatically, but on a significantly smaller sales (dollar) volume. This is probably due to the massive decrease in new home construction.

Another postiive indicator was in the monthly residential sales totals. Both November and December 2007 showed increases vs. the same two months in 2006, 145 in Nov 2007 vs. 130 in 2006 and 135 sales in Dec 2007 vs. 125 in 2006. The year finished with a 10.4% drop in total residential sales. The sales volume (total dollar value of all sales) fell 19.1% in this last calendar year.

We saw a lot of value drop in this last year. My personal opinion is that we'll see another 6% loss in value in calendar year 2008 in the County. In addition to more foreclosures coming into the market, tightening credit, increased scrutiny by lenders and more rigid borrower requirements may make home loans difficult to obtain for many potential buyers, even though the overall interest rates remain very good.

If you absolutely, positively have to sell your home now or at any point in 2008 be prepared to take a lot less than your last refinance or mortgage appraisal value. I'm sorry, but there it is. A full-time local Realtor that keeps their eye on market conditions in the various Livingston County home market areas (Cities, Villages, Townships and School Districts) and price ranges will be your best bet to maximize your selling price.

Buyers are poised to find some value in this market providing that they can meet the tougher new lender requirements to obtain financing. It's still possible to get 100% financing through FHA loans, but almost all other loan types are going to require some money out of your pocket. As home values continue to fall, this buyer's market will persist through 2008.